The chances of making a profit by betting on football matches are extremely low, but a trio of researchers has managed to beat the odds with a simple formula. For every game, they looked for odds that might yield a better return than the average offered by bookies — say, 5 to 1 versus a mean of 2 to 1. But 5 to 1 offers higher returns should the outcome materialise. The team used the historical data to work out the optimal distance from the mean odds — the one that would give a positive payout for the largest number of games. When they applied their strategy in a simulation, they made a return of 3.
Buyer affairs Meet the man who bang the bookies — and the banks. But the odds are against you Is it possible to make capital on sports betting? Certainly that was my view. Apart from an yearly punt on the Grand National I steered well clear. Another obstacle is mental arithmetic. If ever a gambler tried to talk me through the basics, I glazed over within seconds.
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